2023 PGA Championship pool picks: Collin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka among the picks at Oak Hill

The 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill is an ode to one of the greatest golf course designers of all-time: Donald Ross.

What does that mean for the field of golfers trying to win a modern major championship? Penalizing bunkers, tight hole locations, elevated and undulating greens with heavy rough from tee-to-green.

How this works: I’ll select one player from each tier of 10 inside the Official World Golf Rankings top 50. Our rankings locked before this week’s tournament. We’ll also select two wildcards outside the top 50.

This week I’m circling players who play well under these conditions and thrive on bentgrass putting surface. Think classic country club player that can be accurate while working the golf ball into tucked hole locations.

Golfers who hit shots tight and pour in putts inside 12 feet will be rewarded this week. If approach shots aren’t properly located, three-putts will be more in play this week than a normal PGA Tour event.

If a player isn’t in control of his irons, anything less than a world-class short game won’t do.

Relevant statistics when building a roster for a classic office pool format based on the World Golf Rankings include strokes-gained approach, strokes-gained putting on bentgrass and short game. I’m also more interested in driving accuracy than driving distance. Strokes-gained stats used below are based on the last 36 holes of play on bent grass greens.

One last thing to consider is that left-to-right shot shapes are in play down the stretch at Oak Hill.

Tier 1 (1-10) | Patrick Cantlay

After describing all the characteristics required to tame a Donald Ross PGA Championship setup, Patrick Cantlay jumps off the stats page. I would also argue that the 31-year old is overdue for his first major championship.

In his last 36 holes on bent grass greens, Cantlay ranks No. 1 in strokes-gained putting and strokes-gained total. This is a lethal combination. Every facet of Patrick’s game will be on full display this week.

Pace-of-play has become an issue with Cantlay, and I expect him to be under the microscope again, this time in upstate New York. Will the fans give him grief or will Cantlay pick up the pace? Watching it play out over four days at another major championship venue will be interesting.

I also believe in the idea of a “new caddie bump.” Cantlay can get this from his new man Joe LaCava, who used to be Tiger Woods caddie.

Tier 2 (11-20) | Collin Morikawa

The former No. 2 player in the world and two-time major champion, including the 2020 PGA Championship, is a good value play at No. 16 in the OWGR. The fact Morikawa has fallen almost into the 20s is somewhat unbelievable. Morikawa’s approach-shot-accuracy is second to none when he’s on his game. Can he bottle that this week throughout four rounds?

Morikawa ranks fourth in strokes-gained approach vs. the field. This is his ultimate weapon, and this week is the perfect time to use it to his advantage. His left-to-right fade off the tee will also be an asset down the stretch.

Tier 3 (21-30) | Joaquin Niemann

It’s easy to forget how good a player is when they play on the LIV tour. The 24-year-old Chilean is an absolute ball striker and could show up and win this tournament based on talent alone. I love getting him in this wildcard category that doesn’t have chalk.

A 16th-place finish at the Masters tells you everything you need to know about the state of his game. If a LIV player wins a major this season, no one will be surprised if it is Niemann.

Tier 4 (31-40) | Jason Day

Jason Day has been on fire this season when healthy. This is the risk you take when starting the Australian who fights bouts with vertigo and back issues. I’m willing to take that risk this week because Day has all the tools to play well on this golf course. On Sunday, he just won his first tournament since 2018 at the AT&T Byron Nelson.

Against the field, Day ranks 26th in strokes-gained short game, which will go a long way over 72 holes of major championship play on a Donald Ross design. He’ll be able to make par from just about anywhere on the green. Don’t put it past him to hole out, either.

Tier 5 (41-50) | Brooks Koepka

Is this even fair? We might have to talk about the legitimacy of these OWGR office pools now that LIV golfers are plummeting in the rankings. After what Koepka did at the Masters and his history at the PGA Championship, this could be another week of Brooksy.

When Koepka is on, his ball-striking is otherworldly. The driver, fairway woods, long irons and scoring clubs are all as pure as anyone. Did the Masters remind Brooks how to win over 72 holes? His confidence levels should be high thanks to that experience and his two Wanamaker trophies.

Rest of the Field | Taylor Montgomery (No. 60) & Brendan Todd (No. 68)

Montgomery is a wild card thanks to his putter. He ranks 24th in strokes-gained putting vs. the field, and if he can have a solid week approaching the green, he has potential to light up the putting surfaces. The rookie has made a semi-splash on tour this season, but this could become his coming out weekend.

I like that Montgomery played in Texas last week and is rolling into upstate New York with a made cut and some belief.

Considering Jason Dufner won here in 2013, Oak Hill can produce an unexpected champion.

Brendan Todd is world-class at getting the ball into the hole if he misses the green. Todd ranks 13th in strokes-gained short-game and eighth in strokes-gained putting. I also like his tendency to keep drives in the fairway. These attributes make him an interesting pick outside the OWGR top 50.

(Photo of Brooks Koepka: Suhaimi Abdullah / Getty Images)

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